The progressive community is upset over President Obama’s eager willingness to negotiate with Republicans. In many respects it does seem like the president wants to avoid confrontation. But for the progressive community to suggest a primary challenge to Obama is reckless. Imagine how bad off this country could be with a President Palin.
Some may scoff at the notion of a President Palin because of her high negative poll numbers and the high percentage of people who believe that she is unqualified to be president. The old adage about only getting one chance to make a first impression has merit. Goodness knows that she made a horrible first impression with many voters during the 2008 presidential campaign. It would be unwise, however, to ignore her chances of becoming the nominee of the Republican Party in 2012. Palin has over 75% of Republicans having a favorable impression of her and that should not be underestimated in the primaries.
For the sake of argument, let us assume that the half-governor does get the nomination of the Republicans. Let us also assume that the economy is slightly better off than it is now. A Republican majority in the House will not allow President Obama to have many successes so it is a real possibility that the economy will still be sluggish as we approach the 2012 election. Add to that a divided Democratic Party and/or a dispirited progressive base. What would be the chances of Palin getting 270 electoral votes and becoming president? We need to look back at the results of the 2008 election and make some calculated guesses as to what states Sarah Palin could win in 2012.
In 2008, the McCain-Palin ticket won the following states with the percentage of voters choosing the Republican ticket in parentheses.
(* - Nebraska
Given the attitudes of voters in these states toward the president, it would be doubtful that any of these red states would switch and vote for President Obama over Sarah Palin. These states are where some of her most loyal supporters reside. This combination of states yielded 173 electoral votes for McCain-Palin in 2008. Based on the projected changes in the congressional districts due to the new census data, these states would give a Palin ticket 179 electoral votes in 2012. That puts her 91 electoral votes from the presidency.
The following states voted for the Obama-Biden ticket in 2008 with their vote percentage in parentheses.
(* Nebraska Omaha
Based on the new census projections, this combination of states would give president Obama 359 electoral votes and he would win a second term. Using the assumptions mentioned above about a dispirited base of a divided Democratic Party could translate into a 2 to 3 percent reduction in turnout for Obama. Plus, how many of the first time voters and young voters are going to vote in 2012 after the historic chance to vote for the first African American president is no longer a factor? Will these voters be as enthusiastic about voting again? For the sake of argument, let us take another 2 or 3 percent away from Obama. These reductions totaling 4 to 6 percent put 11 states in play with a total of 140 electoral votes. They would be: Indiana , North Carolina , Florida , Ohio , Virginia , Colorado , Iowa , Minnesota , New Hampshire , Nevada , and Pennsylvania Wisconsin or Michigan
Progressives have every right and obligation to voice their displeasure with the president. That is part of being a Democrat. After all, we don’t want to be parrots like those on the right who can never stray from their Republicans-can-do-no-wrong talking points. But taking dissatisfaction with the president to a level which could cause a President Palin is reckless. If Palin were to ever win the presidency, then God help us all.
No comments:
Post a Comment